ICE cotton futures have recorded declines in five of the past six sessions, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment across the market. Both the March and July 2025 contracts reached new contract-low closes, with a stronger US dollar index and falling crude oil prices adding pressure. Analysts anticipate continued market weakness in the near to mid-term.
Yesterday, the ICE cotton May 2025 contract settled at 66.87 cents per pound, down 0.50 cents, marking a total decline of 195 points over the last six sessions. Other contracts saw declines ranging from 10 to 59 points, signaling widespread selling pressure across the board.
A strengthened US dollar, rebounding from its 11-week low, has made cotton more expensive for international buyers. Meanwhile, weakening crude oil prices, triggered by a surprising rise in US refined product inventories and geopolitical uncertainties, further dampened market sentiment. Lower oil prices have also reduced the production cost of polyester fibre, a key competitor to cotton.
In terms of trading activity, volume reached 34,018 contracts, with 5,350 EFS trades and 98 EFP trades. Cleared contracts totaled 31,058, including 5,150 EFS trades. ICE No. 2 cotton stocks remained stable at 1,732 bales as of February 25, showing no significant changes in supply.
The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum is currently underway, with the release of the 2025 Outlook Reports on Thursday expected to influence market sentiment. Additionally, traders are eagerly awaiting the USDA Export Sales Report, also due on Thursday, which has recently shown strong export figures and could act as a potential catalyst for price movement.
Market analysts observed a slowdown in March contract activity, which has reduced market volatility as traders shift focus to later delivery months.
Current Market Prices:
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May 2025: 66.90 cents per pound (up 0.03 cents)
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March 2024: 65.37 cents per pound (down 0.59 cents)
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July 2025: 67.90 cents per pound (up 0.03 cents)
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October 2025: 69.10 cents per pound (down 0.21 cents)
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December 2025: 68.78 cents per pound (up 0.03 cents)
Cash cotton is trading at 64.87 cents per pound, down 0.50 cents. Some contracts remain unchanged, with no trading activity recorded today.
As the market keeps a close eye on upcoming reports, traders are weighing the potential impact of export sales and USDA forecasts on price movements in the coming weeks.
