ICE cotton futures ended lower on Thursday, although losses were mitigated following the USDA’s forecast of decreased US cotton production, reduced inventories, and a decline in global ending stocks. Demand for cotton remained stable, despite a drop in US export sales during the past week, with the forecast for lower inventory bolstering the demand outlook.
The most actively traded December 2025 contract settled at 67.47 cents, down 18 points from the previous close. Meanwhile, the July 2025 contract settled at 65.14 cents per pound (0.453 kg), a decrease of 0.33 cent. Other contracts also closed lower, with losses ranging between 7 and 22 points.
The trading volume for ICE futures was recorded at 77,062 contracts, slightly down from the previous day’s 79,946 contracts. However, trading ranges remained tight, not exceeding 78 points.
According to the June WASDE report, US cotton production for 2025–26 is estimated at 14 million bales, a decrease from May’s forecast of 14.5 million bales and the previous year’s 14.4 million bales. This marks the second-lowest production level in the last decade. The projected US ending stocks for 2025–26 have been sharply reduced to 4.3 million bales, down from the 5.2 million bales estimated in May.
Global cotton ending stocks for 2025–26 are now estimated to be 76.8 million bales, a reduction from May’s projection of 78.38 million bales.
Market analysts pointed out that the significant cut in US inventories, combined with a stable demand outlook, has contributed to a bullish sentiment, even though prices saw a slight decline.
According to the USDA’s weekly export sales report for the week ending June 5, net US cotton export sales for the current marketing year were reported at 60,200 bales, reflecting a 45 percent drop from the previous week.
In Brazil, the IBGE forecasts the cotton planted area in 2025 to be 2,122,848 hectares, a 4.7 percent increase from May and 0.4 percent higher than last year’s area. Output is estimated at 9.26 million tons, reflecting a 1.7 percent month-on-month rise and a 4.5 percent year-on-year increase. CONAB’s data indicates Brazil’s 2024–25 production at 3.9048 million tons, up 5.5 percent from 3.7013 million tons in 2023–24.
Meanwhile, CBOT soybean futures fell to a one-week low, influenced by weak domestic spot prices, sluggish export sales, and concerns about the US biofuel mandate’s impact on oilseed demand.
Currently, ICE cotton for July 2025 is trading at 65.19 cents per pound (up 0.05 cent), cash cotton at 63.39 cents (down 0.33 cent), the October 2025 contract at 65.52 cents (down 0.20 cent), the December 2025 contract at 67.61 cents (up 0.14 cent), the March 2026 contract at 68.86 cents per pound (up 0.07 cent), and the May 2026 contract at 69.96 cents (up 0.09 cent). Some contracts remained unchanged from their previous closing levels, with no trading activity reported today.
