The Italy footwear market sees stability in spite of a challenging global macroeconomic scenario, with a full-year 2025 turnover prediction at €12.8 billion, which is equivalent to $15.1 billion, a year-on-year – YoY dip of 3.1%, as per a survey done by the Confindustria Accessori Moda Study Centre for Assocalzaturifici. The sector’s revenue is forecasted to shrink by almost €409 million from 2024 levels, thereby marking a prominently softer contraction vis-à-vis the previous year.
The survey went on to indicate a marked easing of downturn within the third quarter, when turnover slipped just 0.9% YoY as compared with certain much sharper declines within the first half. The overall revenues throughout the sample when it comes to member companies also saw a dip of 4.1% within the first nine months of 2025, the Italian Footwear Manufacturers’ Association, Assocalzaturifici, confirmed in a press release.
According to the president of Assocalzaturifici, Giovanna Ceolini, the current overall picture still goes on to remain intricate and does not spare even the top end of the market; however, the third-quarter data does indicate a slowdown in terms of decline and the first glimmer of hope at the end of the recessionary tunnel. In spite of the lack of major improvements within the geopolitical scenarios, the capacity of their companies so as to maintain quite a robust presence in the European markets and to capture the demand in more dynamic areas like the Middle East is sure to hold the key to facing 2026.
She further added that the limited dip anticipated in year-end turnover goes on to confirm the resilience of Made in Italy.
All this is sure to add value to the fact that Italy footwear market sees stability.
Apparently, the exports reached €7.72 billion, or $9.11 billion, in the first eight months of 2025, which were, by the way, down by 1.3% in terms of value, whereas the volumes rose 4.3% to 131.8 million pairs. The average export prices eased to around €58.58 per pair, which is a decline of 5.3% after the sharp price rise that was seen in 2022 and 2023.
The European Union – EU which absorbs almost 70% of the footwear exports from Italy, recorded a growth of 2.2% in value and 7.6% in terms of volume. Germany posted certain gains of 6% in value and also 10% in pairs, with Spain, Belgium, Poland as well as Austria also performing pretty well. Outside of the EU, the Middle East went on to emerge as the most dynamic market, having export values growing 13% overall, led by a 20% growth in the United Arab Emirates. Türkiye, along with Mexico, also went on to report quite positive trends.
By contrast, when we talk of the Far East, the region remained under pressure, with exports getting contracted by over 20%, both in terms of value and volume, hence reflecting a sharp slowdown in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and also South Korea. Exports to the CIS region dipped 9.2%, with Russia down 17.8% due to the ongoing conflict.
Notably, the US market continues to get closely tracked. Export values grew 2.9% in the eight-month period, whereas the volumes dipped 4.2%. The sector is also cautiously evaluating the impact of tariffs as per the US–EU agreement. Though August 2025 witnessed a steep 17.8% fall in export value, the preliminary data from September points to a much stronger-than-expected response. Almost 55% of exporters to the US take into account the tariff effects quite prominently, with one in five reporting severe effects.
Imports also saw an increase of 12.8% in quantity to 271.6 million pairs and were throttled mainly because of logistics flows, which were linked to re-exports, especially when one takes into consideration sports footwear and not the domestic demand. Italian household footwear purchases within the first nine months did match up to the 2024 levels only because of a positive third quarter, wherein the volumes rose 2%; however, they remained 7.7% below the pre-covid levels.
Industrial production, on the other hand, continues to reflect the earlier weakness, with the ISTAT index dipping at 8.5% in the first nine months. Business demographics also saw a deterioration, with the number of active footwear manufacturers slipping to 3.4% and employment falling 2.3% as compared to the 2024 levels.
But the signs of normalization are indeed cropping up in short-time work schemes. After a 66% spike in the first quarter of 2025, the authorized hours within the leather supply chain dipped 20% over the next two quarters, thereby resulting in a paltry 2.5% growth over nine months. Tuscany went on to record the highest usage of wage support measures, which was then followed by Campania and Marche, hence reflecting a very cautious workforce management ahead of a probable recovery.