ICE cotton futures saw a cotton futures market rebound from the one-month low recorded in the previous session, driven by technical buying and a weaker US dollar. A general upward trend in agricultural commodities further contributed to renewed positive sentiment around US cotton.
The ICE cotton July 2025 contract settled at 65.64 cents per pound (0.453 kg), rising by 0.75 cent from the previous session, marking only the second gain in the last 10 trading sessions. Even with this increase, the contract posted a net loss of 278 points over the past 10 days. Similarly, the December 2025 contract closed higher at 68.34 cents, gaining 67 points, although it still reflected a net loss of 164 points during the same period. Gains across other contract months ranged from 25 to 74 points, illustrating a broad-based cotton futures market rebound.
US Dollar Weakness Boosts Cotton Competitiveness
The US dollar index fell sharply on Monday, hitting its lowest level in over a week against key currencies such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and euro. This drop followed a surprise credit rating downgrade of the US government, which increased pressure on the dollar amid growing trade tensions. A weaker dollar typically benefits commodities like cotton, making them more affordable for overseas buyers and enhancing US export competitiveness.
Daily trading volumes on ICE reached 36,852 contracts, rising from 31,130 contracts traded in the previous session, signaling a healthy level of market activity.
Technical Support and Broader Market Sentiment
Market experts noted that the 65 cents price level served as strong technical support, encouraging speculative short covering and driving prices higher. This was further buoyed by a positive sentiment across broader agricultural markets, where CBOT grain futures—including soybeans, corn, and wheat—also traded higher. However, analysts caution that cotton prices are likely to remain range-bound until a trade deal or other industry-specific developments materialize.
Brazilian Cotton Export Decline
According to Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), the country exported 101,623.82 metric tons of cotton during the first three weeks of May 2025. The daily export volume averaged 9,238.53 tons, representing a 15.44 per cent decline from the daily average of 10,925.42 tons in May 2024. This indicates a slower pace of Brazilian cotton shipments this year.
US Cotton Planting Progress
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its weekly crop progress report for the week ending May 18, 2025, revealed that US cotton planting was 40 per cent complete, up from 28 per cent the previous week (May 11). However, this figure remains slightly behind both the 42 per cent recorded during the same time in 2024 and the five-year average of 43 per cent. Market participants continue to monitor weather conditions and field developments in key growing regions.
Current Cotton Trading Update
As of now, ICE cotton futures for July 2025 are trading at 65.43 cents per pound (down 0.21 cent), cash cotton stands at 63.89 cents (up 0.75 cent), and the October 2025 contract is at 68.32 cents (up 0.74 cent). The December 2025 contract is trading at 68 cents (down 0.34 cent), while the March 2026 and May 2026 contracts are at 69.35 cents and 70.32 cents, respectively, both down by 0.34 and 0.32 cent. Some contracts remained flat, with no trading recorded today.
