Drewry says the “technical” Strait of Hormuz closure on 28 February 2026 prompted by escalating conflict in the Middle East has primarily affected energy flows, disrupting the movement of crude oil, LNG and LPG. Even so, the maritime research and consulting firm warns that textile and garment supply chains could still feel the impact, not because cargo is physically blocked on the main lanes, but because shipping costs and operational risk premiums tend to rise quickly when the region destabilises.
In a special report, Drewry argued that the broader danger is the way instability can distort vessel deployment and weaken schedule integrity. If ships are delayed, held back, or rerouted to avoid high-risk areas, container positioning can become unbalanced and equipment availability can tighten. That, in turn, can reduce sailing reliability, extend transit times and create uncertainty for exporters and buyers that depend on predictable delivery windows.
Commercial shipping has already paused some activity in parts of the Persian Gulf, with vessels reportedly idling off Oman or diverting away from the Strait. Drewry also highlighted the additional complications created by higher war risk premiums, GPS interference, and security threats along the Red Sea corridor factors that can disrupt planning even for trades not directly linked to energy cargoes.
While the initial effects are concentrated on oil and gas movements, Drewry cautioned that a sustained escalation could spread into container and breakbulk segments that handle textile raw materials, yarns, fabrics and finished apparel. The firm said this kind of operating environment can elevate costs and inject uncertainty across a wide range of global merchandise flows.
For major textile-exporting countries in Asia, Drewry described a key escalation risk: if the conflict spreads into the Red Sea, carriers could opt to reroute Asia–Europe services around the Cape of Good Hope. Such a diversion would add roughly 10–14 days to voyages, increase bunker consumption, and typically push freight rates higher cost inflation that would filter into apparel and home textile supply chains.
Import-heavy markets in Europe and North America could face delivery delays, especially for seasonal and time-sensitive fashion cycles. Drewry added that higher marine insurance premiums and congestion at alternative routing points could further lift landed costs and reduce flexibility for brands managing tight calendars.
The report also stressed the “second-order” effects that often follow disruptions at energy chokepoints. Higher crude prices can raise petrochemical feedstock costs, which can flow through to polyester-related inputs. At the same time, freight volatility affects both inbound raw materials and outbound garment exports, placing margin pressure on manufacturing hubs that are deeply embedded in global value chains.
Although Drewry expects major regional powers to pursue a swift reopening, it said the risk of prolonged disruption cannot be ruled out. If the Strait of Hormuz closure persists, textile and apparel businesses may need to plan for longer lead times, higher working-capital requirements, and increased freight and insurance budgeting.
Drewry said it continues to monitor vessel movements and security developments closely, emphasising that stability in the Gulf matters not only for energy shipments but also for the smooth functioning of global merchandise trade, including textiles and garments.