The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has revised its global cotton production forecast 2025, indicating a decline as shifting trade dynamics increasingly highlight the importance of cotton sourcing.
The global production estimates have been adjusted downwards from 25.9 million tonnes to 25.5 million tonnes.
In the United States, production has dropped significantly by 400,000 tonnes, primarily due to water shortages and uncharacteristically dry weather conditions. Similarly, Pakistan has seen a decrease of 100,000 tonnes, also influenced by climatic issues, while Sudan reports a reduction of 50,000 tonnes due to crop damage from pests.
Despite these fluctuations among import and export partners, overall consumption and trade volumes remain largely unchanged when compared to the previous month.
China’s portion of US cotton exports has dramatically decreased to 8%, down from 40% in the 2023/24 period. This shift is attributed to the US increasing its cotton trade with countries like Vietnam, Pakistan, Türkiye, and India.
These market changes coincide with new policies, including a US executive order that exempts products made with US raw materials from import tariffs. This initiative promotes transparency regarding product origins, responding to the rising demand for traceability in the supply chain, noted the ICAC.
Among other updates since the last report, India has experienced a substantial increase in cotton lint imports for the 2024/25 season, with figures nearly tripling compared to the previous year. The US is also expected to see growth in cotton imports from Bangladesh and India.
The ICAC Secretariat is actively updating its data to maintain accuracy across all regions and countries reported. This month’s revisions include new data for Ethiopia’s cotton market variables, ranging from the 2014/15 season to the current season based on information from the Ethiopian Cotton Organization, Ethiopia Revenue and Customs Service, and Trade Data Monitor.
Looking ahead, the global cotton production forecast 2025 also includes price projections. ICAC economist Lorena Ruiz anticipates prices will range from 60 to 96 cents per pound, with an average forecast of 76 cents per pound, reflecting current supply and demand conditions.
