The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its May 2025 World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, has forecasted a decline in global cotton production for 2024–25. Production is expected to drop by 3.08 million bales, bringing the total to 117.81 million bales (each weighing 480 pounds). However, for 2025–26, global production is anticipated to rise by nearly 1.5 per cent, as larger beginning stocks offset the production decrease.
Global Consumption, Trade, and Ending Stocks
Global cotton consumption for 2024–25 is projected to increase by 1.2 per cent to 118.08 million bales, driven by a 1.40 million bale surge in countries like Bangladesh, India, Turkiye, and Vietnam, which offsets a 500,000-bale decline in China. Global trade is expected to grow by over 5 per cent, reaching 44.83 million bales, with both the United States and Brazil forecasted to boost exports by over 1 million bales each. Ending stocks are projected to remain nearly steady at 78.38 million bales compared to 2024–25.
2024–25 World Balance Sheet Revisions
Adjustments for the 2024–25 global cotton balance sheet include upward revisions in production, consumption, and trade compared to April forecasts, while beginning stocks remain stable, and ending stocks are revised slightly downward.
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Australia’s production has been raised by 200,000 bales due to strong early harvest performance.
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Consumption and imports for Pakistan and Vietnam each grew by 300,000 bales, while China’s imports decreased by 500,000 bales.
As a result, ending stocks declined by 450,000 bales to 78.40 million bales, representing an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 67.1 per cent.
US Cotton Production and Outlook for 2025–26
For the 2025–26 season, the USDA predicts a slight rise in US cotton production alongside higher exports, beginning stocks, and ending stocks, while consumption remains unchanged.
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The planted area is projected at 9.87 million acres, with the harvested area expected to increase to 8.37 million acres, up from 7.81 million acres in 2024–25, aided by improved precipitation in the Southwest and reduced abandonment.
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The national average yield is forecasted at 832 pounds per acre, lower than last season’s 886 pounds, based on regionally weighted five-year averages.
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US production is anticipated to reach 14.50 million bales, slightly above the 14.41 million bales produced in 2024–25.
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Exports are projected to rebound to 12.50 million bales, up from 11.10 million bales, supported by larger beginning stocks and increased global demand.
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Ending stocks are expected to rise by 400,000 bales to 5.20 million, leading to an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 36.6 per cent.
The season-average price for the US cotton crop in 2025–26 is forecasted at 62 cents per pound.
US Cotton Balance Sheet for 2024–25
For 2024–25, the US cotton balance sheet reflects:
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A 200,000-bale increase in exports, reaching 11.10 million bales.
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Production of 14.41 million bales, as per the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) final estimate.
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A reduction in ending stocks to 4.80 million bales.
The season-average price for 2024–25 remains steady at 63 cents per pound.
