The United States is gearing up for a remarkable increase in shopping activity this Thanksgiving, with nearly three million additional consumers expected to shop across stores and online compared to last year. New data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics forecasts a record-breaking 186.9 million shoppers will engage in purchasing during the Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday period. This forecast stems from a survey of 8,000 adults conducted between late October and early November.
Katherine Cullen, NRF’s vice president of industry and consumer insights, emphasized the financial weight of the season for many families: “The holidays are an important part of many consumers’ budgets, and that trend is especially true this season. As a record number of shoppers are expected this Thanksgiving weekend, retailers are prepared to meet the needs of consumers with great value and convenience.”
The shopping frenzy will last all five days, but Black Friday remains the standout with 70% of shoppers (130.4 million) planning to buy then. Cyber Monday is the next big day, attracting 40% of consumers (73.9 million). Meanwhile, Small Business Saturday sees 67 million shoppers, with 80% motivated to support local businesses—highlighting a growing trend for community-focused spending.
Phil Rist, EVP of strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics, added, “Many Americans consider shopping to be an important part of their Thanksgiving holiday and one of the best ways to get deals on gifts. Of those planning to take advantage of sales, over half say it’s because the deals are too good to pass up. Others point to the tradition or simply say they like to start their holiday shopping during the long weekend.”
This robust trend is consistent, as 58% of consumers had already started their holiday shopping by early November, mirroring behavior over the past five years. On average, shoppers have completed about 26% of their planned purchases before the Thanksgiving weekend arrives.
Clothing and accessories continue to dominate shoppers’ gift lists, favored by 50% of buyers. Gift cards follow at 43%, and toys round out the top three at 32%. Online searches are the leading influence for gift ideas at 41%, then recommendations from friends and family at 35%. Retail store browsing and wish lists complete the inspiration mix.
Looking forward, the National Retail Federation projects total holiday spending for November and December will surpass the $1 trillion threshold for the first time, marking a 3.7% to 4.2% increase over last year. This surge marks the significance of the Thanksgiving 2025 shopping surge as a key driver of record-setting holiday sales.
