In its August 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced adjustments to the global cotton balance sheet for the 2025-26 season, lowering projections for production, consumption, trade, and both beginning and ending stocks compared to the previous month. Total world production is now expected to decline by 1.8 million bales (with one bale weighing 480 pounds or 208.65 kg), primarily due to reductions in output from the United States, Sudan, Uzbekistan, and Mali, although this is partially countered by an increased yield in China. The total forecast for global cotton production stands at 116.62 million bales, down from 118.42 million bales reported in July 2025.
Global cotton consumption is also projected to decrease by over 100,000 bales, as reduced mill usage in India, Bangladesh, and Turkiye outweighs a rise in consumption in China. Current estimates for global consumption have shifted to 117.99 million bales, compared to last month’s figure of 118.12 million bales.
World trade forecasts have been revised downward by 1.1 million bales, reflecting lowered export projections for the U.S., Sudan, and Mali, among minor adjustments elsewhere. Current estimates for cotton exports now total 43.59 million bales, a decrease from 44.69 million bales in the previous report.
Beginning stocks for the 2025-26 season have been adjusted downward by 1.73 million bales, largely due to increased consumption in China and Brazil during the 2024-25 period. Consequently, beginning stocks are now estimated at 75.05 million bales, down from 76.78 million bales. With both reduced beginning stocks and production figures, ending stocks for the upcoming season are cut by more than 3.4 million bales, now projected at 73.91 million bales, down from 77.32 million bales last month.
In the U.S., the 2025-26 cotton balance sheet reflects decreased figures for production, exports, and both beginning and ending stocks, while consumption and imports remain unchanged. The area planted is lowered by 8% to 9.3 million acres based on data from the NASS August Crop Production report. The intended harvested area is reduced by 15% to 7.4 million acres as drought conditions in the Southwest lead to an increase in the expected national abandonment rate from 14% to 21%.
The national average yield for 2025-26 has been raised by over 6% to 862 pounds per harvested acre, as the anticipated abandonment in the Southwest means fewer low-yield dryland acres will be harvested. The production forecast is thus adjusted to 13.2 million bales, which is nearly 1.4 million bales lower than in July and 1.2 million bales down from the prior year. Exports are slashed by 500,000 bales due to the smaller crop size.
Beginning stocks for 2025-26 are lowered by 100,000 bales following an increase in exports for the 2024-25 season. As a result, ending stocks are projected at 3.6 million bales, down by 1 million from last month, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 26.3%. With tighter domestic supplies, the expected season-average Upland price for 2025-26 has been raised to 64 cents per pound this month.
