For the 2024-25 period, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a rise in global cotton production by 500,000 bales, reaching a total of 120.96 million bales (480 pounds each), as reported in the March 2025 World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Despite this increase, global cotton ending stocks have been reduced by 80,000 bales, while exports are expected to rise by 200,000 bales, indicating stronger export prospects amid ongoing global challenges.
The USDA has adjusted its global cotton production estimate upward from the 120.46 million bales indicated in the February 2025 report. Ending stocks were revised down to 78.33 million bales, a slight decrease from 78.41 million bales reported earlier. Domestic cotton consumption worldwide has been increased to 116.54 million bales, up from the previous estimate of 115.95 million bales.
This month’s report highlights increased production, consumption, and trade in the global cotton market, with a downward revision in ending stocks. Beginning stocks remain unchanged. A rise in production from China compensates for decreases in Pakistan and Argentina. Consumption forecasts have been upped for Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Egypt, which outweigh minor revisions in other regions. Exports have risen from Brazil and Turkiye, offsetting the declines seen in Australia and Egypt. Although China’s cotton imports have been lowered, the increase in imports from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Egypt more than offsets this reduction, leading to an overall decrease in global ending stocks for 2024-25 by 80,000 bales.
There are no adjustments to the US cotton balance sheet for 2024-25 this month; however, the average upland farm price projection for the current year has been decreased to 63 cents per pound.
