Global cotton supply is expected to edge ahead of demand in the 2026-27 season, with production projected to reach 25.9 million tonnes versus consumption of 25.2 million tonnes, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee’s (ICAC) May 2026 edition of Cotton This Month. The figures point to a market that remains broadly steady in overall scale, but with trade flows softening and inventories building modestly.
The global cotton production forecast implies that both output and usage will be close to levels seen in the current season, suggesting no major step-change in underlying demand. However, ICAC expects world cotton trade to dip by about 2.7%, taking shipments to roughly 9.6–9.7 million tonnes, as buyers and sellers adjust to shifting regional dynamics.
Several factors are shaping the outlook. ICAC notes that geopolitical friction in the Middle East could disturb fertiliser supply chains, potentially lifting costs for growers and tightening margins ahead of planting and crop management decisions. In the United States, persistent drought across key producing areas is raising the possibility of higher crop abandonment, adding uncertainty to yield outcomes. At the same time, higher prices for synthetic fibres could improve cotton’s relative attractiveness for spinners, while supportive growing conditions in China are expected to underpin solid yields.
China is forecast to remain the dominant force on both sides of the balance sheet. ICAC projects Chinese output near 7 million tonnes, keeping it the world’s largest producer, while consumption is expected to represent about 32% of global use—maintaining China’s position as the biggest end market.
Trade rankings are set to remain familiar. Brazil is projected to hold on to its status as the leading exporter, with the United States and Australia next in line. On the import side, Bangladesh is expected to stay the top buyer, with purchases forecast at around 1.8 million tonnes, followed by China, Vietnam, Pakistan and Türkiye.
With supply slightly outpacing demand, global ending stocks are anticipated to rise. ICAC projects inventories for 2026-27 increasing by about 4% to 17.9 million tonnes, supported by higher production and stronger imports, particularly into China.
On prices, the ICAC Secretariat’s Cotlook A outlook for the 2025-26 season is estimated in a range of 73 to 84 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 78 cents per pound, reflecting current supply-and-demand conditions. Overall, the global cotton production forecast suggests a mildly looser market heading into 2026-27, with weather risks, input costs and relative fibre pricing likely to remain key variables for growers, traders and mills.
