ICE cotton futures experienced a downturn as weak USDA cotton projections weighed on market sentiment. The primary factor driving the decline was oversupply projections in the US, adding pressure to the market. US cotton prices have declined in five of the past six sessions, though a weaker US dollar provided some relief by capping further losses in the natural fiber.
The ICE cotton July 2025 contract settled at 66.28 cents per pound (0.453 kg), a decline of 0.35 cent compared to the previous session. Over the past six days, this contract has recorded a cumulative loss of 214 points. Similarly, the December 2025 contract ended at 68.77 cents, down 0.08 cent on the day, with a six-session loss of 121 points. Other contracts saw varying results, ranging from a 6-point decline to a 27-point increase.
A 0.4% decline in the US dollar index helped limit further losses by making US cotton more affordable for international buyers, supporting foreign demand for the commodity.
Trading volume for the day reached 41,465 contracts, significantly lower than the previous session’s 63,602 contracts. Meanwhile, certified stock levels rose by 4,971 bales, reaching a total of 27,240 bales, which reflected an increase in deliverable supply. Since the start of May, there has been a net increase in certified stocks, with 13,994 new bale certifications and 1,232 bales decertified.
Analysts observed that further weakening of the July contract against the December contract could reduce delivery incentives, potentially altering market dynamics.
The USDA WASDE May report outlined a 2025–26 planted area estimate of 8.37 million acres, up from 7.81 million acres in 2024–25. Cotton production for the ongoing season is projected at 14.5 million bales, slightly higher than last season’s 14.41 million bales. Analysts referred to this as “the most bearish US production number of the year,” citing the high supply projections as the main driver of bearish market sentiment.
On the international trade front, the US and China announced a 90-day reduction in tariffs, offering temporary relief amidst trade tensions. While the move eased concerns over the trade war, the cotton market remained frustrated due to the lack of a concrete trade agreement, leading to continued price volatility.
As of now, ICE cotton for July 2025 is trading at 66.39 cents per pound, up 0.11 cent. Cash cotton declined by 0.35 cent, standing at 64.53 cents per pound. The October 2025 contract is trading at 68.83 cents, down 0.06 cent, and the December 2025 contract increased by 0.18 cent to trade at 68.95 cents. Contracts for March 2026 and May 2026 saw gains, trading at 70.26 cents (up 0.18 cent) and 71.27 cents (up 0.28 cent) per pound, respectively. Some contracts remained unchanged, with no trading activity recorded for the day.
