India’s cotton planting area has seen a slight reduction this season; however, the country is on track to acquire a record amount of seed cotton (kapas) following an 8.27% increase in the minimum support price (MSP). The government intends to procure cotton through the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), and with the import duty waived until the end of December 2025, farmers might be left with no option but to sell to the government.
As of August 29, 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture reported that the area allocated for cotton cultivation was 10.877 million hectares, which reflects a 2.62% decline compared to 11.139 million hectares during the same period last year. This current sowing area is also below the five-year average of 12.95 million hectares. Cotton planting typically starts in May in northern India and continues until the third week of September in central states.
The ministry has projected a cotton yield of 30.692 million bales, each weighing 170 kg, which is a 5.8% decrease from the previous marketing season of 2023–24. In contrast, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimated production to be 31.14 million bales in its report from August 2025. The reduced area under cultivation may lead to lower production levels in the upcoming 2025–26 marketing season, which starts in October. Despite this, strong government procurement is anticipated due to current market conditions, especially with an MSP for medium staple cotton increased to ₹7,710 per quintal.
Sources in the trade mentioned that while the elevated MSP is advantageous for farmers, it makes Indian cotton less competitive on the international stage. The December 2025 contracts for ICE cotton were quoted at 66.03 US cents per pound, roughly translating to ₹45,700 per candy (356 kg) or ₹128 per kg. Even after factoring in import costs, foreign cotton is expected to remain more affordable, with Indian cotton prices likely to hit at least ₹63,000 per candy under the new MSP regime.
Recently, the government has extended the duty-free import of cotton until December 2025, allowing domestic textile manufacturers continued access to less expensive cotton for an additional three months. Initially, the exemption was set for a mere 40–42 days until the end of September, aligning with the conclusion of the current marketing season, but it has now been prolonged as the new season commences in October and arrivals of cotton are expected to increase by mid-month.
Market analysts believe that the duty-free imports during the early months of the new season will help facilitate the anticipated record cotton purchases in India. With demand for domestic cotton waning due to cheaper imported alternatives, farmers will likely find themselves selling to the CCI. Experts predict that procurement could reach up to 14 million bales, approximately 40% higher than the 10 million bales of the current season, further solidifying expectations for record cotton purchases in India this year.
