In early September, cotton prices in Brazil experienced a decline as harvesting and processing activities for the 2024-25 season advanced, which increased the availability of cotton batches and prompted sellers to adopt more flexible pricing. The depreciation of the dollar abroad further contributed to this downward trend in the domestic market, according to the Centre for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA).
As prices continued to fall, many sellers opted to refrain from executing trades in the spot market, instead favoring longer-term contracts that offered more favorable rates compared to the prevailing market prices. Buyers, on the other hand, engaged in only a limited number of transactions.
The CEPEA/ESALQ Index, which reflects payment due in eight days, dropped by 6.05% from August 29 to September 15, settling at BRL 3.6703 (~$0.69) per pound on September 15. On September 12, it reached BRL 3.6590 per pound, the lowest nominal rate since early July 2023, as reported in CEPEA’s latest bi-weekly analysis of the Brazilian cotton market.
According to the latest data, the Brazilian cotton market price trends show that by September 4, 90.83% of the 2024-25 crop had been harvested, with 30.65% processed.
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) anticipates that global cotton acreage will total 30.8 million hectares for the 2025-26 season, reflecting a 0.76% reduction from the previous crop year. Productivity is projected to rise by 1.4%, reaching 829.18 kilos per hectare, contributing to an overall production estimate of 25.55 million tons, which marks a 0.63% year-over-year increase. World consumption is expected to approach 25.519 million tons.
In Brazil, cotton production is expected to rise by 7.19%, reaching a record high of 3.92 million tons in the 2025-26 season, supported by an expanded planting area. Domestic consumption is forecasted to increase to 752 thousand tons, an uptick of 0.27% compared to the previous season, representing the highest level since 2014-15 when consumption reached 801 thousand tons.
Overall, the analysis of Brazilian cotton market price trends highlights the challenges and opportunities within the sector as stakeholders navigate cost fluctuations and changing global dynamics.
