Economic conditions are casting a long shadow over the upcoming holiday season, with more than half of US holiday shoppers indicating that their spending decisions this year will be directly influenced by the current financial climate. This is according to findings from the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) annual consumer survey, which polled 8,094 US adults during October and was conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
Affordability Drives a More Calculated Approach to Holiday Spending
The survey makes clear that affordability is now a central concern for a growing share of consumers heading into the holiday season. As a result, US holiday shoppers are actively recalibrating how and where they spend. Among those surveyed, 43% said they plan to target more sales than in previous years, 31% reported they will increase their use of online price comparison tools, and 29% indicated they intend to rely more heavily on coupons.
Allison Zeller, Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights at NRF, noted that holiday shoppers are approaching spending thoughtfully this season, aiming to balance value with preserving the traditions that define the holiday period. She added that retailers are responding to consumer budget priorities with compelling products, promotions, and shopping experiences designed to help customers find value while still capturing the holiday excitement.
Despite the financial caution that appears to be defining this year’s sentiment, overall participation in the holiday season remains robust. The survey found that 91% of US adults still plan to celebrate major winter holidays, maintaining the high levels of engagement seen in prior years.
Early Birds vs. Deal Hunters: A Nation of Shoppers Divided on Timing
One of the more revealing aspects of the NRF survey is the split between consumers who are shopping early and those holding out for the biggest deals. While 43% of respondents said they intend to begin their holiday shopping before November — largely to spread out their budgets or capitalise on early promotions — 64% indicated they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to take advantage of deals. This pattern is broadly consistent with trends observed in previous years.
Among those shopping early, half cited spreading the financial load as their primary motivation, while 37% pointed to attractive promotions already available in the market. On the other side of the divide, 46% of those delaying their purchases said they believe the best deals emerge during November and December.
Phil Rist, Executive Vice President of Strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics, highlighted that consumers are choosing their shopping windows based on what works best for them individually. He noted that even among the significant portion who begin shopping before November, many still plan to take advantage of deals and promotions during Thanksgiving weekend to make further progress on their holiday shopping lists.
What Shoppers Want and Where They Plan to Buy
When it comes to the most sought-after gifts this holiday season, clothing ranks among the top choices, with 44% of respondents saying they hope to receive apparel. Gift cards, however, continue to hold the top position as the most popular gift request, with 47% of shoppers favouring them.
Online shopping remains the dominant retail channel, with 53% of holiday shoppers planning to make purchases digitally. Grocery stores and discount retailers are tied at 43% each as preferred shopping destinations, while department stores follow closely at 42%.
NRF Projects Holiday Spending to Cross $1 Trillion
Looking further ahead, the NRF has forecast a 4.2% increase in holiday-related spending, projecting that sales during November and December will reach $1.01 trillion. The projection underscores that, despite widespread concern about affordability, holiday spending in the United States continues on an upward trajectory, and US holiday shoppers remain an enormous force in the retail economy.
The data collectively paints a picture of a consumer base that is budget-conscious but not disengaged — one that is willing to participate fully in the holiday season while being more deliberate and strategic about when and where their money is spent.
