For the 2024–25 period, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a reduction in global cotton production by 70,000 bales, bringing the total to approximately 120.89 million bales (each weighing 480 pounds), according to its April 2025 World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Conversely, global cotton ending stocks are anticipated to increase by 530,000 bales, while exports are expected to drop by 380,000 bales. This decline in exports is largely attributed to global uncertainties stemming from tariff-related issues.
The USDA has adjusted its global cotton production estimate down from 120.96 million bales to 120.89 million bales in its latest report. Cotton exports have been revised to 42.33 million bales, compared to the previous March 2025 projection of 42.71 million bales.
Domestic cotton consumption has also fallen, now estimated at 116.02 million bales, down from 116.54 million bales last month. Global textile mill usage decreased by 520,000 bales this month, primarily due to reductions in China and Indonesia, which outweighed an increase in Turkiye. Additionally, global imports have decreased, with declines in China and Indonesia offsetting an increase in Turkiye, while other regions experienced only minor changes.
The highly anticipated WASDE report projects ending stocks for the 2024–25 season at 78.86 million bales, up from the previous estimate of 78.33 million bales. Increases in stock levels were observed in China, Australia, Brazil, Egypt, and the US, countering declines noted in Turkiye and Argentina.
In terms of the US cotton balance sheet, the only notable adjustments include a reduction of 100,000 bales in exports to 10.9 million bales, along with a corresponding rise in ending stocks to 5.0 million bales. The projected average upland farm price for the 2024–25 season remains stable at 63 cents per pound.
