India’s cotton production forecast has undergone a significant upward revision, now projected at 311.40 lakh bales of 170 kg each, according to the latest report from the Cotton Association of India (CAI) for July 2025. This update reflects an increase from the previous estimate of 301.15 lakh bales reported in June 2025, marking a rise of 10.25 lakh bales.
The revised estimates reveal substantial contributions from several states: Maharashtra is expected to deliver an additional 5 lakh bales, while both Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh are each set to contribute 1.5 lakh bales more. Karnataka is projected to produce 1 lakh more bales, with Andhra Pradesh increasing by 50,000 bales. Additionally, Haryana, along with both upper and lower Rajasthan, is expected to contribute an extra 25,000 bales each.
The CAI’s regional breakdown shows that cotton production will total approximately 29.55 lakh bales in the North Zone, 186.50 lakh bales in the Central Zone, 89.50 lakh bales in the South Zone, and 5.85 lakh bales from Odisha and surrounding states. State-specific forecasts indicate Punjab at 1.5 lakh bales, Haryana at 8.05 lakh bales, and Gujarat at 77.50 lakh bales, among other contributions.
Overall, the total cotton supply by the end of June 2025 is estimated at 356.76 lakh bales, comprising market arrivals of 296.57 lakh bales, imports of 30 lakh bales, and an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales. Domestic consumption for the same period is anticipated to reach 233.50 lakh bales, with exports projected at 15.25 lakh bales.
For the entire 2024–25 cotton season, total supply is now estimated at 380.59 lakh bales, up from an earlier forecast of 370.34 lakh bales. This figure includes the opening stock, revised production estimates, and imports, which are expected to total 39 lakh bales, a sharp increase from last year’s imports of 15.20 lakh bales.
Moreover, the CAI has raised its domestic consumption forecast to 308 lakh bales, up from 305 lakh bales, while export projections remain stable at 17 lakh bales. By the end of the 2024–25 season on September 30, 2025, the closing stock is expected to reach 55.59 lakh bales, significantly higher than the 30.19 lakh bales recorded at the conclusion of the previous season.
